Kathmandu: A groundbreaking new study published in The Lancet has warned that U.S. foreign aid cuts under President Donald Trump could result in the deaths of over 14 million vulnerable people by 2030, including more than 4.5 million children under five. The research, timed with a major UN aid summit in Seville, Spain, underscores how deeply humanitarian programs are being affected by the sharp reduction in funding.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which once provided more than 40% of global humanitarian aid, has seen an 83% funding cut since Trump returned to the White House in January. According to the study, this drop threatens to undo two decades of health progress in low- and middle-income countries, with researchers likening the potential fallout to that of a global pandemic or armed conflict.

"These aid cuts are not just putting lives at risk – they are also undermining critical infrastructure that took decades to build," said Francisco Saut of Mozambique’s Manhica Health Research Center.

The study examined data from 133 countries between 2001 and 2021 and found that USAID funding helped prevent 91.8 million deaths during that period — more than the death toll of World War II. Modeling forward, the team predicted that the current aid cuts could result in an additional 700,000 child deaths per year through 2030.

Key findings include:

-A 15% reduction in all-cause deaths in countries receiving USAID support.

-A 32% drop in under-five mortality, showing USAID's disproportionate impact on child health.

-65% fewer HIV/AIDS deaths in heavily supported nations.

-Malaria and neglected tropical disease deaths cut nearly in half.

Despite these dramatic findings, the U.S. has declined to participate in the ongoing Seville aid conference, the largest in a decade. Other donor countries such as France, Germany, and the UK have also announced cuts, sparking fears of a ripple effect across the global aid ecosystem.

"We are seeing 88 deaths every hour already from these cuts," said Brooke Nichols, a disease modeler from Boston University who maintains a live aid impact tracker.

Co-author James McKinney from UCLA highlighted that USAID's annual cost to the average American is just $64 per person — roughly 17 cents a day. “If people knew this, they would likely support it,” he said.

Researchers behind the report emphasized that the grim forecast can still be reversed if donor countries, especially the U.S., reconsider their positions.

“Now is the time to increase, not reduce,” concluded Davide Rossella of ISGlobal.

The warning comes as the world grapples with multiple humanitarian crises — from conflict and food insecurity to climate disasters — all of which rely heavily on sustained foreign aid support.